Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season/Earl
05L.EARL AOI: Tropical Wave (2) A new AOI has appeared for the tropical wave WNW of 96L. It is at 20/30, and unlike 96L, could develop in the Caribbean and threaten land. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:02, July 28, 2016 (UTC) 97L.INVEST invest'd. models dont seem to develop this --'Hurricane ' 18:36, July 28, 2016 (UTC) :Since 97L is ahead of 96L and will probably reach the unfavorable conditions that the NHC mentions in the latter's TWO first, I am not surprised to see that behavior from the models. Regardless, another tropical storm (that preferably becomes a hurricane) would be nice. AndrewTalk To Me 19:43, July 28, 2016 (UTC) :::Yeah, this is probably gonna be to 96L as Agatha was to Blas, a weak storm in front of another one that eats up the unfavorable conditions so the one behind it can develop easier. I don't expect this to develop, but 96L has a decent chance of becoming something down the road. Ryan1000 19:58, July 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::Hopefully that happens. If it does, we might see a stronger Earl than I predict (from 96L) and this might have a small chance to be Fiona or a TD. If Earl became stronger than I predict and this was only a TD, then we could be saved from an epic fail 40-mph name waster in that scenario. The worst thing that could happen is if both invests became 40-45 mph failings as opposed to one of them being stronger. It's cool to see the Atlantic finally starting to heat up again. ''St''''eve'' 21:08, July 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::Steve actually many models are making this a hurricane, the thing it has against it its is foward motion that its too fast. Like Chantal of 2013. Another thing is that if it does not crash into the greater antilles it might become trouble for Mexico if it takes the southern route as there is high oceanic heat in the Caribbean that can sustain a major. The weaker it stays right now the more west it will move and more trouble it might cause. If it crash into the northern antilles it will not amount much and if it takes the northern route the less likely it might become just a strong ts or weak hurricane. Allanjeffs 03:57, July 29, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Allan, there is some dry air from the Saharan Air Layer near the Lesser Antilles right now, and according to Dr. Masters latest blog post the SHIPS model is expecting wind shear to increase near the Lessers over the weekend to around 15-25 knots, so this doesn't look prime to become something big near the Antilles, but if it can survive past that it might become something in or just north of the Caribbean later on. Since this is in front of 96L, conditions for development will likely be more favorable for 96L than they currently are for 97L, it resembles something like Ana and Bill in 2009 in the Atlantic, or Agatha and Blas earlier this month in the EPac. The one in front weakens unfavorable conditions and doesn't become very strong so the one behind it has an easier time developing into something big. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Ryan1000 05:06, July 29, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::97L is currently in unfavorable conditions and is not organizing at the moment, and so chances of development for the next 2 days have been reduced to 10%. However, 97L remains something to watch as 5-day odds remain 30% due to more favorable conditions expected when it reaches the Carribbean. This wave still might have a shot at being a hurricane if models are right. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:48, July 29, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::This looks like a potential threat to some areas in the western Caribbean like Mexico, if 97L can survive that far. Fortunately, those regions have escaped from damage these last few hurricane seasons. Regardless, it looks like these worries will only come to fruition if 97L endures through its current environment. AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, July 30, 2016 (UTC) It's up to 30/60 now, and models develop it in the western Caribbean before heading westward into Mexico. This looks likely to be Earl but maybe not until August. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 17:49, July 30, 2016 (UTC) : 97L's thunderstorms are increasing in coverage, but it doesn't have much of a circulation per NHC. (Still pretty impressive given the current conditions) It's seeming quite likely that this will become Earl. Hopefully impacts won't be too severe if it develops and makes landfall. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:52, July 30, 2016 (UTC) :: Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A 18z best track says its in the TD threshold. --'Hurricane ' 19:04, July 30, 2016 (UTC) : 97L continues to look better. I believe it might develop by the middle of next week, but be a potential land threat. It is 30/60 and might be Earl soon. Hopefully it does not do much devastation in the long run, although early August isn't usually the time for strong and devastating hurricanes. ''St''''eve'' 01:13, July 31, 2016 (UTC) ::: Occasionally it can be, like with Allen of 1980 or Diana of 1990. This wave could become something akin to Diana when it eventually reaches the Western Caribbean, though it'll have to slow down quite a bit if it wants to become something noteworthy. Moving at 26-30 mph is awfully fast for an African tropical wave, too fast to develop very much. Chantal of 2013 moved that fast when it formed, and it dissipated shortly after forming. Ryan1000 02:37, July 31, 2016 (UTC) :::: 40/70 now, code red. Hopefully Earl is on the way, but let's hope it's not a destructive storm. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 06:00, July 31, 2016 (UTC) ::::: That's why I said "usually", Ryan. :P It's most likely going to form into Earl this week, but hopefully it's not destructive. Its chances are up to 50/70. ''St''''eve'' 00:44, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Amazing, A ship close to PR is recording sustain winds of 45mph. I am pretty sure once the center become better define this will go staight to ts status. From Texas to Nicaragua they need to watch out this system. Its becoming really organize at the moment. Depending on what Ascat reveals this might get to be classified tomorrow morning. Btw models are showing a future Fiona in a similar track but moving NW into Alabama as a major. Things are really heating in the Atlantic. Allanjeffs 01:44, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::: Eh, the latter is forecast a long ways ahead and there's a lot of uncertainty to that. For now, 97L will probably move quickly into Belize and the Mexican mainland later this week as a TS or hurricane, hopefully it doesn't become as bad as Diana '90 though. I knew the Atlantic wasn't going to get much in July as the MJO moved over to the EPac, but as I mentioned before, a dead July means nothing as even hyperactive years can have a dead July but still go on to be very active. Plus, we're already way ahead of schedule in the Atlantic anyways, this year being one of only two seasons to have 4 storms before July, the other of which also had a dead July but still went on to have 19 storms. The EPac isn't letting up on activity either; not only is 9-E poised to become Howard soon, but Ivette could be coming from the new system behind it. This is going to be one very busy August. Ryan1000 02:43, August 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: 97L looks great tonight with a convective burst. Here comes Earl, as all of the 3 major models (ECMWF, GFS and CMC) develop this into a tropical cyclone. It is the first tropical cyclone to form in the Caribbean Sea since Barry in June 2013. I feel like this storm is a good indicator that the Caribbean Sea will not be dead in 2016 like it has been in recent years. Earl should be coming sometime in the next 72 hours. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 05:16, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::: 70/80, and the latest TWO says that the system has winds of up to 45 mph. It looks likely Earl could come today, and it seems like it will skip over TD status. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 05:47, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::: Yeah it had the winds already so it will be upgrade directly to Earl like I previously post. Models are also developing the wave leaving Africa into Fiona and making her a major a high end cat 4 in the gulf they also develop Gaston in the Caribbean. This season looks poised to be one to remember as the Caribbean is looking prime for development. Wind shear is the 6th lowest since record began. Someone might have a bad time this season. Allanjeffs 05:51, August 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::: 80/90. I have to say, as my time as a tropical cyclone forecaster, I have to say that this is the best-looking open wave I have ever seen. It looks like a tropical cyclone but still lacks a well-defined closed circulation. I'm not sure when this thing will finally close off, hopefully it will close off sometime today. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 13:56, August 1, 2016 (UTC) (←)Yeah Allan, the U.S. may not get another lucky break from major hurricanes this time around, it's been 11 years since we've officially seen one, and conditions for development are quite favorable in the MDR this year. Hopefully there's nothing too severe though, as it only takes one storm to make a year memorable. Ryan1000 14:19, August 1, 2016 (UTC) : I'm amazed this wave is still unable to close off a circulation, as it looks amazing. Before there was good wind data, I bet this would have been called a tropical storm by how it looks. It's already producing 45 mph winds, so I suspect as soon as it gets out of the "death zone" it will become Earl, skipping TD status. Even though this is not currently a tropical cyclone, it can still cause tropical storm level damage, and islands such as Jamaica should be prepared despite the lack of warnings. Open waves producing tropical storm force winds might be more dangerous then tropical storms because of this. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:39, August 1, 2016 (UTC) :: I hope that this wave closes off a circulation soon. It is still 80/90 as of the 5 PM (PDT) tropical weather outlook. We should really like to see it be named as soon as possible, as we have been waiting for Earl for over a month now. I agree with your point, Raindrop. Open waves with TS force winds don't have any warnings issued for the areas, while tropical storms do. This is why open waves producing TS force winds might be more destructive and/or deadly than tropical storms. The invest looks really well organized, and even kind of looks like a tropical storm already. It just needs to close off its circulation, which it has been struggling to do today, so it can be Earl. This season has some interesting stuff in store, but I am hoping we don't see a really devastating storm this year by the likes of Katrina, Mitch, Rita, Ike, Wilma, Sandy, etc. It really is possible that the luck streak of a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. could end this year. ''St''''eve'' 00:02, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::: Wow, really 97L? This thing has not developed a closed LLC for so long, I doubt this WILL become Earl, and just dissipate. OK, that probably won't happen, I do still expect Earl by tomorrow, and for it to be a weak to moderate TS(45-55 mph), but right now, I have kinda lowered those chances... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 01:56, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::: Well 97L have already kill 6 in Dominican Republic with 4 more missing pressumely dead. This make it the worst of the season. Its death toll is higher than all death by the previous 4 storms combine. 97L is to be closing its llc as a huge blow out of convection have just occcur. 97L might be upgrade tomorrow once recon reach reach in the morning.Allanjeffs 03:33, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::: Recon failed to find a closed LLC yesterday, which is why it's not Earl yet. Maybe it'll have one later today. Since it's already producing TS force winds, it'll skip depression stage if it obtains a closed LLC. Ryan1000 05:46, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::: Ryan, Recon never went to the system as they had maintance issues. They are right now going to the system and see if it has a closed LCC. By satellites you can clearly watch the exposed LCC.Allanjeffs 13:13, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Earl Not confirmed officially at all, but weather radar, microwave data and even visible satellite imagery all show a circulation center on the western edge of the deep convection, so I'll assume advisories will be issued at 1500 UTC with at least 40-knot winds. Also I'm getting too lazy to scroll all the way down to add new comments. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:30, August 2, 2016 (UTC) : If this isn't Earl later today I don't know what NHC is up to. Honestly it should've been upgraded yesterday. Ryan1000 14:08, August 2, 2016 (UTC) : This ISN'T Earl yet. Latest recon is not confident AT ALL. Have a look at this, it seems this is going to be a Failicia or a failed invest after all: :: They've announced now that they will start initiating advisories at noon, finally. TG 15:23, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Mandatory Data... Observation Time: 13:50Z on Tuesday Coordinates: 18.3N 81.0W Location: 72 statute miles (116 km) to the SSE (161°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.). Pressure Altitude: 300 meters (984 feet) Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 17 knots (From the E at ~ 19.5 mph)- The above is a spot wind. - Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems. Flight Level Air Temperature: 26°C (79°F) Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C (64°F) Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds) Turbulence: None Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1013 mb (29.92 inHg), extrapolated Additional Data... Estimated Surface Wind: From 100° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph) 14:21, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::How I feel like right now: (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ 97L, stop messing yourself up. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:33, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::: Special Message from NHC: First advisory on Tropical Storm EARL will be issued prior to noon. But Earl will be a Failicia + Recon still has east winds, so I cannot say whether it is really tropical or not..... 14:54, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::A Failicia would involve avoiding land, which disqualifies Earl, and it's entirely possible that Earl could strengthen before striking Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:00, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::FINALLY! And if Earl can slow down enough, it's stil possible for it to not be a fail storm... (And west winds were found by the recon, so it's closed) ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:57, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::: ::::was about to post that ugh...--'Hurricane ' 14:58, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::And there are east winds again......from recon. From 167° at 29 knots(From the SSE at ~ 33.4 mph) - 14:54:30Z 15:10, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::Well, the advisory is out. 45 mph/1001 mbar. Earl is expected to peak near hurricane strength according to the NHC (65 mph), so I wouldn't rule out hurricane status with Earl. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 16:08, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Earl might be able to crack 75 mph or so before hitting the Yucatan tomorrow, but it won't get stronger than cat 1, if that, before landfall because it's moving WNW at a fairly fast 22 mph. This also means flooding rains probably won't be a huge concern, unlike with slower-moving storms in this area. Nonetheless, there will be some impacts from this in Belize and Mexico so it's not a "fail". Ryan1000 16:16, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::I'll be kinda surprised if Earl reaches C1, due to how fast it is moving and how slow it has been strengthening. I predict a 50-65 mph storm. I give C1 a 20% chance of happening, so it's not out of the question... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 16:28, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::Earl looks to be strengthening, with increasing convection and even what could be an eye feature, although it's ragged and cloudy. I expect 60 mph by the next advisory if this is a sign of intensification. EDIT: This is in fact a false eye, however Earl still appears to be intensifying. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 21:43, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::: ::::::::::Earl looks poise to rapidly strengthen tonight. I can this see ramp up to cat 2 status before it strike Belize. Effects are going to be primary in Belize but Guatemala, Honduras and Yucatan are going to feel a lot of rain from the system. Btw Earl has slow and its now moving west at 14 mph so more time to intensify.Allanjeffs 22:01, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::This could turn potentially dangerous for the Yucatan if it ends up rapidly intensifying (contrary to the NHC forecast). I give at least a 25% chance of Earl intensifying to a hurricane before striking Belize. This obviously doesn't look like a fail anymore. Its wind speed is up to 50 mph after being 45 mph this morning. I also believe it might have been a TS yesterday, but the NHC just wanted to wait until the recon flight. Anyway, hopefully Belize and surrounding areas prepare themselves. ''St''''eve'' 23:43, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::50 mph. 1002 millibars. I don't really know if it really is an eye. If it is, then Earl might be pulling off a Fay 08 and forming an eye as a TS. Although if the 14 mph forward speeds help at all, hurricane is possible, but I give that anywhere from 20% to 40%...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 23:40, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::PS, Just read raindrop's post, and its not an eye. My mistake. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 23:42, August 2, 2016 (UTC) It's now up to 60 mph/996 mbar, second strongest storm of 2016 season, and it looks like an eyewall may be forming. Come on Earl, become a hurricane! ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 00:01, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : I see that it's approaching hurricane status. Come on, become one! I hope it isn't too devastating in the Yucatan region and Belize though. The name "Earl" deserves to go to a hurricane-strength system! The NHC forecast remains quite conservative though, since it keeps Earl as a TS throughout the rest of the forecast period. ''St''''eve'' 00:32, August 3, 2016 (UTC) ::: Earl may have slowed a bit but it still doesn't have enough time to explode into something big, Harvey of 2011 also formed in this area and didn't become a hurricane, despite being organized and small enough to potentially RI, Earl probably won't either. At best, it could pull an Ernesto '12 and strengthen up to a cat 2 at the last minute, but even that's not likely. In their wind speed probabilities forecast, NHC only indicates a 5% or lower chance it could bring hurricane-force winds to Belize City and surrounding areas tomorrow night. Hopefully that's the case, we don't want Earl to get too strong before it makes landfall, otherwise it could be bad for them. Ryan1000 02:42, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::: Well, looks like Earl might be looking at Harvey as his role model and he will follow in his footsteps. So i've bumped the chance of Earl cracking C1 down to 10%. Good Earl. UPDATE: Holy cow, Earl is now a 65 mph, 989 mbar SEVERE TROPICAL STORM! NHC expects Earl to hit Belize as a C1 hurricane! Bad Earl! [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 11:57, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::: I had the feeling there was something fishy about the NHC only expecting a 5% chance of hurricane-force winds at landfall, but even though it may not get much past cat 1, it's still strong enough to cause impact wherever it hits. Ryan1000 12:17, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: NHC updated: WINDS AT 70 MPH just estimated/recorded! Earl is stronger than Harvey! [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:20, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: Earl is causing heavy rain right now in here. Classes have been suspend in 7 departments and a hurricane warning was issue. My country is very prone to flooding so I am a little worried. The bay islands will recieve the brunt of the storm in terms of Honduras impacts.Allanjeffs 12:28, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : Hmmm... Earl's track is somewhat similar to Iris '01, but much weaker compared to Iris. I just hope Belize won't get a Hattie '61/Iris '01 from this storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:55, August 3, 2016 (UTC) ::Earl is showing some signs of a potentially destructive storm. Models are showing its strongest winds right in the Belize City area, and I hope everybody stays safe! Also, Earl is predicted to drop most of its rain near Belize City, parts of extreme Southern Mexico, and Veracruz. TG 13:51, August 3, 2016 (UTC) ::::The pressure rose to 990 from 989 with the newest advisory, interaction with northern Honduras is keeping the intensity in check a little. I'd rule out anything past cat 1 intensity by now. It won't even come close to Iris or Hattie in terms of impacts. Ryan1000 19:56, August 3, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Earl Upgraded to a hurricane, according to NHC! 75 mph, 988 mbar. We have the second hurricane of the season! ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM FIONA FORM! 21:04, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : After 6 months, the Atlantic has another hurricane. However, Earl will hit land soon. Earl's looking pretty good right now, and if Earl could have had more time, we might have seen a major. We'll see how much Earl can strengthen before landfall, and hopefully people are out of the way of what could still be a dangerous storm. Also, if Earl's circulation makes it to the EPAC, Earl could have a much longer lifespan... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 22:07, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : This is our second hurricane of the season, 6 months after the first, it's not often that you hear that. Unfortunately, Earl has already had impacts. It has caused 6 deaths in the Dominican Republic. Expected landfall is later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Leeboy100Hello! 23:52, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : Also, new advisory just came out. The winds haven't changed, but the pressure has gone down one millibar to 987. Leeboy100Hello! 23:56, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :: Earl won't make it to the EPac, it'll die over Mexico long before that. But it could briefly restrengthen in the BoC before hitting land a second time after it hits Belize later tonight and tomorrow morning as a cat 1. Ryan1000 02:28, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::Pressure down to 984 mbar with the latest advisory. A worrying little gem from the new forecast discussion: "Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico in a couple of days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible" mine. That sounds eerily familiar... Earl, behave. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:58, August 4, 2016 (UTC) ::::Because the NHC bases their advisories on a couple hours before the time it is released, the NHC is likely underestimating Earl's intensity. It looks to be strengthening as much as it can before it hits land... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 03:10, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::I hope Earl does not pull a Stan and cause devastating floods all around the area. I congratulate Earl for becoming our second hurricane, but I hope they're prepared over there. ''St''''eve'' 04:41, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Raindrop, Earl is just about to make landfall in Belize so it's not going to get much stronger than it is now; it could possibly go to 80-85 mph by the next advisory, but after that it'll be too late and Earl will be moving ashore. And god forbid this pull a Stan-like flood disaster for southern Mexico...if it does, this could actually be our first real retirement candidate this year. Ryan1000 04:52, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Earl at 80mph and its eye is clearing out in satellites. If it had another 6 hours this one would have been easily a major. Though Belize have dodge a big bullet. Earl should have strengthen before but it used the energy to become bigger and let out dry air from Honduras. Cant believe this would have been easily a major if it had a little bit more of time. Allanjeffs 05:43, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Earl has officially made landfall. Leeboy100Hello! 06:08, August 4, 2016 (UTC) ::::::: Tropical Storm Earl (2nd Time) So, Earl DID become a hurricane after all. Oh, and EARL, DONT YOU DARE BECOME FRIENDS WITH THE GYRE! IF YOU DO, YOU BOTH WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN, LEADING TO GREAT, OR EVEN BIBLICAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES! PEOPLE WILL HATE YOU EARL, WILL THINK YOU ARE A TOTAL JERK, AND WILL HAVE YOU RETIRED! '' Oh, its down to TS anyway. BUT STILL...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' '''IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:04, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :Earl is maintaining its organization despite being well inland, and is forecast to slow down and drench Campeche over the next few days. Looking at footage from iCyclone, the situation in Belize City is quite bad, with the storm surge submerging the entire first floor of coastal buildings. If Earl links up with the Mexican gyre... ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:44, August 4, 2016 (UTC) ::Yeah Allan, if Earl wasn't moving so fast through the Caribbean as a tropical wave it would've probably been much stronger at it's landfall in Belize, but fortunately it wasn't. Belize will take some damage from this hurricane but impacts there won't be the worst of Earl; if it stalls over Mexico and merges with the other system, this could be Mexico's 4th consecutive year with record impacts from a tropical cyclone, though the previous 3 were from the EPac. 'Ryan1000 13:02, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::Despite being really far inland, Earl still seems to have an eye feature. However, convection is decreasing, so Earl is weakening. The movement of this feature seems to indicate a WSW movement, so Earl might not even enter the BOC. Sadly, Earl is currently causing quite a bit of damage, hopefully it doesn't cause as much flooding as expected. Earl is the first storm this year that will have a true shot at retirement... And Earl's remnants when in the EPAC, whether named Earl or not, seem to pose a threat to Baja California. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:18, August 4, 2016 (UTC) ::::I agree that Earl has a shot at retirement. This was just a little worse than I had expected from the storm. I was watching TWC early this morning, and the first thing I saw when I went to turn on the television was the impacts of Earl. I have to admit that it was pretty bad. A reporter was in Belize City, where waters had completely submerged the first floor of many buildings. Earl is only going to get worse as it moves through Mexico. TG 15:09, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::Earl is still a tropical storm, and it's about to move into the BOC (briefly). I'm sorry to hear the impacts Earl caused in the area. I'm pretty sure we might have our first retirement candidate. ''St''''eve'' 05:23, August 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Crap, I knew Earl was used for wild hurricanes in the beginning, but I never knew it was capable of catastrophe!'' Entire first floors were flooded!? Holy' COW!' Bad Earl! Oh if it does reach East Pacific, it will be named Javier, as storms, especially remnamts usually never keep their names moving basins.[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:19, August 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Actually, It will still be Earl unless it dissipates and reforms in the EPac. For example: Ernesto dissipated over Mexico, its remnants became Hector in 2012. TG 12:26, August 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::...Which will probably happen TG, Earl isn't looking very likely to survive Mexico and it's remnants will likely merge with the wave in the EPac to become Javier, which will recurve around Mexico and eventually hit Baja. Hopefully the combined two storms don't cause catastrophic floods in Mexico, impacts in Belize were bad enough as it is. The last time a storm fully survived the Atlantic and made it to the EPac was Cesar in 1996, but back then the name-keeping policy for basin crossers wasn't in effect so it was renamed Douglas. Ryan1000 13:20, August 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::Earl is really hanging in there...it's holding onto TS strength much longer than I thought it would. Will be interesting to see if it can strengthen a bit while located over the extreme southern BoC. Probably not since Earl is so far south, but sometimes storms in the BoC can rapidly intensify. 13:52, August 5, 2016 (UTC) Earl can restrengthen before it makes landfall again in about 12 hours, while the circulation is still over the warm waters of the BoC. The pressure has just dropped slightly, and recon is on the way. However I don't think this will RI due to land interaction. Please don't anyway - crop damage and flooding in Belize looks bad enough. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:48, August 5, 2016 (UTC) :Whoa, latest forecast advisory jumps the winds to 50 kts; I had a feeling from the get-go that Earl's intensity forecasts for the Bay of Campeche were conservative (based on how quickly Ernesto re-intensified on a similar track in 2012... and Karl's explosion in 2010). We'd better be glad that Earl is only a short distance away from landfall, because either it's getting ready to bomb, or its intensity has been underestimated since at least last night. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:41, August 5, 2016 (UTC) :::Whoa, Earl barely even moved over water and was able to restrengthen that much, and is looking pretty well organized. Earl should be making landfall again shortly, but it could even strengthen a little more before landfall at the rate it currently is. Earl is going to be unexpectedly worse in Mexico because of this stunt of Earl's. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:57, August 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::Well, it looks like Earl is pulling a Karl. In this upcoming advisory (7:00 P.M. CDT), Earl could be a hurricane if it continues this rapid strengthening. TG 22:53, August 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Earl appears to be merging with the AOI south of Mexico and is dumping a lot of rain around Veracruz right now, hopefully it's not too heavy or this storm could cause life-threatening floods to the region like Stan did 11 years ago. Ryan1000 02:55, August 6, 2016 (UTC) :::::::I'm quite surprised that Earl managed to pull this strengthening stunt. I only expected a weak disorganized TS moving through the BOC, and not a stronger TS that would have bombed out if it were not for the land surrounding it. I hope it does not cause Stan-like flooding or an Ingrid-Manuel type flooding (because the nearby EPac AOI could contribute). Once the storm is all done, we could have a retirement candidate... ''St''''eve'' 03:24, August 6, 2016 (UTC) Remnants of Earl Dissipated over the high terrain of Mexico. Hopefully Mexico gets off easier than Belize did, and the death toll doesn't rise any higher than where it is now (13 I believe, though that includes fatalities from the precursor wave). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:42, August 6, 2016 (UTC) :Damage values aren't out yet, but they'll definitely be pretty high. This has a medium chance of retirement. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:45, August 6, 2016 (UTC) ::According to The Guardian, the death toll from Earl in Mexico has skyrocketed to 38 :( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/07/mexico-mudslides-tropical-storm-earl-death-toll Combined with the 13 deaths from the precursor wave, Earl's body count is now up to 51, making it the deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclone since Sandy. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:20, August 8, 2016 (UTC) :::It appears that Earl really does have a decent chance of retirement now. My condolences go out to everyone affected by this disaster. :( ''St''''eve'' 04:19, August 8, 2016 (UTC) ::::Earl's preliminary damage total is at $50 million from crop damage alone in Belize, and it's only going to get even higher as they assess property damage. TG 17:40, August 8, 2016 (UTC) ::::Dr Jeff Masters have mention that Earl might possibly be retired as it has the highest death toll since hurricane Gilbert in 1988. I believe Elias, Emanuel or Efrain might be good candidates for replacement. Allanjeffs 22:17, August 10, 2016 (UTC) ::::Damages in Belize now up to roughly $100 million. Probably the costliest since hurricane Iris in 2001. Death toll in Mexico now up to 52, total death toll now at 65. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)